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作者:雷霆之怒公益服 来源:http://www.edmi.com.cn 时间:2020-12-01 13:41

    PCSC, which has a joint venture with Shanghai Starbucks,plans to expand the number of coffee shops it runs in Chinafrom 390 to c700 by 2015 and 1,000 in the next 3-4 years.

    Branding and scale matter most. Coffee shops, especiallywell-known chains, have helped to spread coffee culture inmajor cities. Branding and scale are the keys to success.
    Between 2000 and 2012 coffee consumption increased at aCAGR of 13%, but our analysis suggests this can rise to19% between now and 2030. People in China drink anaverage of four cups a coffee a year, way behind Hong Kong(150), Japan (400) and northern Europe (600). The YangtzeRiver Delta – Shanghai plus the provinces of Jiangsu andZhejiang – is emerging as the coffee-drinking capital ofChina thanks to urbanisation and the growing number ofexpats and visitors.
    The beneficiaries. Two Taiwan companies, President ChainStore (PCSC) and Gourmet Master, should benefit most.



    Brand recognition usually translates into premium pricingand higher gross margin, while economies of scale raiseentry barriers and increase bargaining power forprocurement and logistics. We think popular chains willcontinue to gain market share from smaller operators.

Full of beans. China, the world’s largest consumer andproducer of tea, is starting to discover a taste for coffee.


    Gourmet Master, which runs coffee chain 85°C, has 400stores in China and is aiming for 550-560 in 2015; samestore sales growth recovered in 3Q thanks a new store format.
    Valuation. For PCSC we remain OW, raise our 2014-15eearnings 3.9% and increase our TP from TWD245 to TWD255based on an unchanged 2014e PE of 26x. For Gourmet Masterwe lower 2014e earnings by 3.7%, remain OW and raise our TPfrom TWD230 to TWD240, based on 25x 2014e PE. Our TPsare 15% and 16% above consensus, respectively.

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